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  • Ballestas Group

The Good news is Bad News Narrative Returns

Investors are anticipating further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve as Fed funds futures suggest a 0.25% increase at each of the upcoming meetings in March, May, and June. The likelihood of a 0.5% increase in March has also risen to 27%. The minutes from the February FOMC meeting, which were released this week, indicate that the Fed plans to continue raising rates to achieve its inflation target of 2%, which is currently far from being achieved. However, recent data shows that although economic activity was stronger than expected, progress towards achieving the target has been slower than anticipated. This suggests that the Fed may have to raise rates for longer than originally planned.

The news that core inflation, the preferred price gauge of the agency, rose to 4.7% year-on-year, and 0.6% from a month earlier, supports the view that the recent improvement in inflation may have failed. Moreover, the US GDP was revised down to 2.7% in the fourth quarter from the initial estimate of 2.9%, while consumer spending corrected to 1.4% from 2.1%.

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