Economic Surprises and Political Moves Shape the Week

Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing new tariffs of up to 50% on dozens of countries, which will take effect at 12:01 a.m. on August 7. This measure marks the beginning of so-called "reciprocal" tariffs after weeks of negotiations. Major industrialized economies such as the European Union, Japan, and South Korea will face tariffs of 15%, while other countries with trade surpluses with the US will see tariffs of 10%. Brazil will face a 50% tariff, and Canada a 35% tariff on products that do not comply with the USMCA agreement. At the same time, Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a 90-day extension for Mexico to reach a new trade agreement.

On the economic front, US GDP grew 3% annualized in Q2 2025, reversing the 0.5% contraction recorded in Q1 and exceeding market expectations (2.4%). The rebound was mainly driven by a sharp drop in imports (-30.3%), following a sharp increase in the previous quarter, when consumers and businesses rushed to beat the imposition of tariffs.

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