Jobs Surprise Upward Boost: Strong Data Redraws Fed Expectations and Challenges Soft Landing

Friday's employment report showed an increase of 272,000 jobs in May, well above the consensus forecast of a 180,000 increase and stronger than expected wage growth; 0.4% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year. These data led markets to reconsider the soft landing narrative. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4%. As a result, markets ruled out one of the Fed's two interest rate cuts scheduled for this year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report showed that job openings fell to 8.06 million in April from a downwardly revised 8.36 million in March. The April figure was the lowest since February 2021. The quits rate held steady at 2.2%, while the ratio of vacancies to unemployed fell to 1.2, the lowest level in nearly three years.

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