Market Rebound: Renewed Hope for a Soft Landing Amid Inflation Easing and Solid Retail Gains

Two weeks after weaker-than-anticipated employment data caused market turbulence, a series of encouraging economic reports have renewed hope that the Federal Reserve will achieve a soft landing. This week's inflation data indicates that the disinflationary trend of recent months is continuing, with consumer prices rising 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, the first reading below 3% since early 2021. Core inflation rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.2% on an annual basis. Although the numbers have improved, housing prices remain persistently high. Robust July retail sales (+1% m/m) reinforce the idea that last month's weak employment data was a weather-related one-off, rather than a sign of an impending economic pullback.

On the employment front, Thursday's initial jobless claims data was reassuring, easing to 227,000 after peaking at 250,000 in late July. The odds of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting fell to 25% from nearly 100% in early August. Investors still expect three to four quarter-point cuts before the end of the year.

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