McKinsey Global Energy Perspective 2025 Summary

McKinsey has released its Global Energy Perspective 2025, and the central message is unmistakable: the world is not on track for 1. 5°C. Even under the most optimistic scenario, global warming is projected to reach 1.9°C by 2100, meaning that current decarbonization commitments are not sufficient.

The report stands as one of the most influential global energy forecasts—alongside the IEA’s World Energy Outlook and BP’s Energy Outlook—providing a comprehensive view of demand, investment, electrification, fuels, and critical materials.

Three Scenarios, One Outcome

McKinsey models three possible pathways:

1. Slow Evolution (2.7°C) – A slow transition where fossil fuels remain dominant, and policies focus on low prices and energy security.

2. Continued Momentum (2.3°C) – A moderate transition, with greater renewable energy adoption but still falling short of the Paris targets.

3. Sustainable Transformation (1.9°C) – An accelerated transition driven by electrification, renewable deployment, energy storage, and carbon capture.

What’s revealing is that none of these scenarios achieve stabilization at 1.5°C, highlighting the widening gap between discourse and action.

Five Forces Reshaping Global Energy

1. Electricity demand will double between 2023 and 2050, driven by the electrification of industry, transport, and buildings.

2. Data center growth, especially from artificial intelligence expansion, could consume over 14% of U.S. electricity by 2030.

3. Natural gas is re-emerging as a backup and transition fuel, particularly in Asia and Latin America.

4. Energy security is back as a top priority, with governments favoring stability and affordability over long-term climate goals.

5. Technological and logistical bottlenecks - including electrical equipment, grids, batteries, and turbines - are slowing the pace of transition.

Critical Minerals: The Silent Bottleneck

The report emphasizes that the energy transition depends as much on copper and lithium as it does on sun and wind. Global demand for critical minerals could triple before 2040, yet over 70% of processing capacity is concentrated in China. Without new mining projects, regional refining, and diversified supply chains, the world will lack the materials needed to meet climate targets.

Latin America - home to major copper (Chile, Peru) and lithium (Argentina, Bolivia) reserves - plays a key role but risks remaining a raw-material exporter unless it develops local refining and industry.

The Transition Costs More Than Expected

To stay on a 1.9°C-compatible path, global energy investment must double to roughly $7 trillion per year. Most of these funds are concentrated in advanced economies, while emerging ones face high capital costs, fiscal constraints, and fossil fuel subsidies.

McKinsey warns that without innovative financial instruments - such as green bonds, multilateral guarantees, and clear regulatory frameworks - the transition will remain uneven and expensive.

Latin America’s Reflection

The region faces five concrete risks:

1. Stalling halfway through the transition.

2. Insufficient electrical infrastructure to absorb renewables.

3. Technological dependence on China.

4. Deficits in green financing.

5. Loss of industrial competitiveness.

   
   

Latin America has exceptional natural resources - hydroelectric, solar, wind, and minerals - but a lack of regional coordination and industrial vision could leave it behind in the new energy economy.

Colombia in Focus

For Colombia, the report outlines several key lessons:

• Strengthen the electric grid and accelerate transmission and storage expansion.

• Maintain competitive natural gas as a short- and medium-term backup.

• Implement tax incentives to promote new molecules - biofuels, SAF, and hydrogen - and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

• Position the country to attract data centers and energy-intensive industries by offering reliable power and stable tariffs.

Without a solid industrial energy policy, Colombia risks remaining an exporter of coal and oil while importing green technologies at high prices.

Conclusion

The Global Energy Perspective 2025 is a warning: the global energy transition is advancing, but not fast or fair enough. The new equilibrium won’t be decided between oil and wind, but between copper, power grids, financing, and governance.

For countries like Colombia, the challenge is not only environmental - it’s economic, fiscal, and strategic. Being left out of the transformation would be far more costly than embracing it decisively.

Published by McKinsey & Company, October 2025

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