Quiet Waters, Clearer Skies - Signals for 2026 Begin to Surface

The week in the United States left a mixed economic outlook, but consistent with a gradual slowdown and no signs of stress. The most relevant data was the sharp reduction in the trade deficit, which fell to $52.8 billion, its lowest level since 2020, driven by a rebound in exports and a moderate increase in imports. At the same time, fiscal accounts showed a significant improvement: the budget deficit in November fell by $16 billion compared to the previous year, and in the first two months of the fiscal year, it accumulated a 16% decrease, with revenues growing 14% year-on-year, thanks in part to increased tariffs. These data reinforced the perception of an economy that is cooling but remains stable and fundamentally sound.

In the labor market, compensation costs grew less than expected and job openings barely rebounded, signs of a gradual adjustment after years of strong demand. Even so, optimism among small businesses rose to a three-month high, supported by better sales expectations and less pressure linked to labor shortages. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced this reading by warning that the economy "does not feel hot" and that official data may be overestimating monthly job creation by about 60,000 jobs. Powell also noted that much of the remaining inflation comes from the pass-through of tariffs, a phenomenon that should peak in the first quarter of 2026.

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