Rate Cut Expectations Rise as U.S. Data Softens

This week, the focus was on the labor market, where weekly unemployment claims rose to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021. This rebound boosted Treasury bond purchases and pushed yields back toward 4%. However, analysts warned that the rise could be due to seasonal adjustments linked to the Labor Day holiday and that much of the increase came from Texas, so next week's data will be key to confirming whether this is a deterioration or a one-off. The report came after a sharp downward revision of last year's nonfarm payrolls, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut the rate by 25 basis points at its meeting next week.

In terms of prices, inflation showed mixed signals. The consumer price index rose 0.4% in August to 2.9% year-on-year, while the core rate remained at 3.1%. Tariff pressure continues to be an inflationary factor, although producer prices surprised with a monthly decline of 0.1%. At the same time, the net wealth of US households reached a record USD 176.29 trillion in the second quarter, after increasing by USD 7.08 trillion, while the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.35%, its lowest level in eleven months, providing some relief to the real estate sector. There was also an increase in median household income, which reached USD 83,730 in 2024, an improvement of USD 1,040 over 2023.

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