Rising Inflation and Impending Debt Crisis

The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 4.7% year-on-year in April. The data is slightly higher than in March, which had a reading of 4.6%, a sign that inflation continues to be higher than what the central bank wants. The US Treasury Department forecast is that X-Day is next June 1st. Both the White House and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy say that the agreement is close and that some details remain to be polished. Among them, a decrease in spending for the next two fiscal years stands out. It is expected that, by the time the negotiations are finished, spending cuts ranging between 0.1% and 0.2% of GDP will be agreed. The outline of the plan being discussed suggests that the debt ceiling would be raised by around $4 trillion, an increase that is expected to be enough to avoid having to make another increase until after the elections in 2024. If an agreement is reached Before May 27, the House of Representatives could vote on the 31st and the Senate would vote the next day, on the supposed Day X.

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