Sailing Ahead - Growth Outlook Brightens Post-Shutdown

The United States experienced a week marked by a combination of economic, market, and political events, presenting a complex landscape for investors. On the economic front, the end of the historic 43-day government shutdown brought relief, but also highlighted the impact on official statistics: although October's non-farm payrolls will be released next week, authorities have warned that it will not be possible to calculate the unemployment rate due to the lack of data collected during the shutdown. In addition, although some air travel restrictions remain in place, they are expected to be lifted before the busy Thanksgiving period. At the same time, new trade measures seek to contain high food prices, with imported products such as bananas, coffee, and cocoa excluded from tariffs, an initiative aimed at moderating consumer prices.

On the labor front, private data from ADP indicated that the economy lost an average of 11,250 jobs in the last month, while initial unemployment claims remained within a stable range. On the credit front, Bank of America highlighted a significant rebound in spreads on bonds issued by US hyperscalers, which rose from 50 to 78 basis points amid heavy debt issuance to finance new investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Financial markets also received relevant signals from the Federal Reserve: despite more restrictive comments from FOMC members who had previously supported cuts, the probability of a further 25 basis point cut fell back to 50% towards the end of the week. At the same time, the White House projected a recovery in growth to rates of 3%-4% in early 2026, an optimistic view after the blow of the government shutdown, although the NFIB small business survey showed a deterioration in sales, margins, and hiring capacity, revealing deeper tensions in the productive fabric.

READ MORE