Until the last week, the anticipation in the market was that the Federal Reserve would not increase rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting in June. There were speculations of a potential pause in June, with the possibility of a subsequent rate hike in July depending on the presented data. However, following unexpected rate hikes by the Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada, investors are currently adjusting their expectations and assigning a greater probability to the Fed's decision to raise rates on June 14. Up until this point, the Federal Reserve has been exercising caution in its statements and actions, aligning closely with market expectations.
Conversely, regarding the labor market, there was an unforeseen rise in weekly unemployment claims, reaching 261,000, which is the highest level recorded since October 2021. This figure significantly surpasses the analyst's projected number of 236,000.