Tacking Through Headlines - Markets Move Without Urgency
- Ballestas Group
- 1 hour ago
- 1 min read
The week in the United States left a complex picture, with mixed economic signals, significant reactions in financial markets, and a political backdrop that once again took center stage. On the macroeconomic front, the most encouraging data came from the regional manufacturing sector: the Chicago PMI index surprised by jumping into expansionary territory in January for the first time in almost two years, suggesting an incipient improvement in industrial activity after a prolonged period of contraction. Durable goods orders also contributed to the positive tone, growing 5.3% in November, driven by a strong rebound in commercial aircraft orders, while underlying orders advanced 0.7%, both above expectations and consistent with a gradual recovery in investment.
However, the inflation picture once again prompted caution. Producer prices rose more than expected in December, with a monthly increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year variation of close to 3%, reinforcing the perception that the disinflation process remains slow. Even though the most relevant components for the personal consumption expenditure index showed a more benign dynamic, the data was enough to keep the Federal Reserve's attention. In line with this, the trade deficit widened sharply in November, reflecting a rebound in imports, which led the Atlanta Fed to cut its fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate. At the same time, consumer confidence fell sharply in January, reaching its lowest level since 2014, in contrast to the central bank's more optimistic view of the labor market.

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