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The Market Sets its 2026 Bearings - Balanced Winds, Shifting Charts

  • Ballestas Group
  • Jan 5
  • 1 min read

During the last week of the year, US economic indicators showed mixed signals, with a gradual slowdown in manufacturing activity and greater clarity on the direction of monetary policy. The manufacturing PMI publishedbyS&PGlobalwas confirmed at 51.8 points in December, down from November's figure, marking weaker expansion within the current growth cycle. In line with this moderation, the Chicago PMI surprised on the upside, rising to 43.5 points, although it remained in contractionary territory for the twenty-fifth consecutive month, reflecting persistent weakness in regional activity. The real estate market continued to show signs of cooling. The Case-Shiller index of 20 cities reflected a slowdown in year-on-year price growth, while pending home sales data showed a fourth consecutive monthly increase, suggesting some resilience in demand.


On the monetary front, the Federal Reserve minutes revealed a majority consensus around the possibility of further rate cuts during 2026, provided that inflation continues to ease. However, divisions persist within the FOMC regarding the balance of risks between inflation and the labor market. At its last meeting of the year, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, in line with market expectations.


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