This week, the presidents of the main Central Banks were gathered at the forum of the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal. In his presentation, the president of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said that there is still a significant probability of a recession, although it is not the most likely scenario. He also mentioned that he sees the US economy heading towards a soft landing. Additionally, it is worth noting that the futures markets have priced in an additional rise by the Fed at the next meeting in July. Currently, they estimate a 30% probability that the Federal Reserve will increase the rate again before the end of the year. One of the most important points is that the market has now internalized the Fed's message and no longer expects the start of looser monetary policy in early 2024.
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