From Overcast to Opportunity - Reading the Winds in Global Markets

This week was marked by a series of significant economic indicators, sharp movements in financial markets, and political decisions that once again affected short- and medium-term expectations. On the macroeconomic front, the most striking data was the sharp drop in job vacancies. In December 2025, job openings fell by 386,000 to 6.54 million, the lowest level since September 2020 and well below market expectations. The weakness was widespread, with sharp declines in professional services, retail, and the financial sector, and extended to all regions of the country. While hiring and separations remained stable, the decline in the vacancy ratio to 3.9% reinforces the perception of a labor market that is gradually losing momentum. Other indicators accompanied this more moderate tone. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index improved again in February, although it remains nearly 20% below early 2025 levels, with a marked divergence between households with stock market exposure and those without financial assets. At the same time, one-year inflation expectations fell sharply to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than a year, while long-term expectations remained high.

In contrast, PMI indices surprised on the upside, with manufacturing returning to expansionary territory, suggesting an economy that is slowing but still far from an abrupt contraction. This combination of weaker labor data and mixed signals on activity pushed Treasury yields lower toward the end of the week. In the markets, the week was dominated by a sharp correction in software and technology stocks, driven by fears that advances in AI will erode traditional business models. The launch of new AI-based productivity tools and the revelation of plans to invest nearly $650 billion in capex by 2026 by big tech companies reignited the debate about possible overinvestment. This context favored a rotation toward value stocks, leading the Russell 1000 Value Index to hit record highs.

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