• Ballestas Group

Uncertainty ahead of Fed rate hike

Updated: Sep 19

The inflation rate in the US fell from 8.5% to levels of 8.3% (consensus expected it to fall to 8.1%). For its part, the underlying rate accelerated from 5.9% to levels of 6.3% (consensus 6.1%). After the inflation data, the market is discounting an 84% probability of a 75bps hike at the next monetary policy meeting on September 21 (and the remaining 16% a 100bps hike). The good news of the week came from the side of the labor market, given that on Thursday the weekly figure on unemployment claims was published, which fell again. The data was 213K when the consensus expected said figure at 226K. The 4-week moving average, which removes the volatility that weekly data can have, was also down 8K to 224K. The strength in the American labor market continues.


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